When XJO corrects by 1% after a long time – what next
with XJO falling by more than -1 ( 1.47% ) as on 13 Nov 2013 , and the last time when XJO fallen by more than 1% was on 30 Sep 2013 , which is 31 trading days ago ,
we looked at how XJO fares over the next 1/2/3/4/5 trading days ,
below the rules we applied ,
- XJO has fallen by more than 1% as of current trading session ,
- while XJO hasn’t fallen by more than 1% , during the last 30 or more trading days
Below the trading odds , for the XJO longs over the next 1/2/3/4/5 trading days , since Jan 2002 .
| Exit | # | Wins | % Wins | Avg% | Med% | Avg Win % | Avg Loss % | Pay Off | Max Loss % |
| t+1 | 17 | 12 | 70.6 | 0.32 | 0.22 | 0.61 | -0.37 | 1.64 | -0.82 |
| t+2 | 17 | 10 | 58.8 | 0.42 | 0.23 | 1.18 | -0.67 | 1.75 | -1.80 |
| t+3 | 17 | 10 | 58.8 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 1.23 | -1.09 | 1.13 | -3.07 |
| t+4 | 17 | 10 | 58.8 | 0.34 | 0.19 | 1.35 | -1.11 | 1.22 | -3.19 |
| t+5 | 17 | 10 | 58.8 | 0.60 | 0.54 | 1.57 | -0.79 | 1.99 | -3.57 |
| Swing High | 17 | 15 | 88.2 | 0.44 | 0.30 | 0.56 | -0.45 | 1.23 | -0.78 |
Swing High row ,means ,we exit the longs at first profitable close over the next five trading days , or exit at the end of the fifth trading with a loss ,
as you can 15/17 times XJO closed higher than the current close at some point of time in the next five trading days , with an average gain of 0.44% when one exits at the first profitable close , the average loss for the 2 loss making trades stands at -0.45 %
below the prior instances of XJO falling by more than 1% , for the first time in the 30 trading days , since Jan 2002.
| Date | XJO Close | Loss% | # ago 1% fall | t+1 | t+2 | t+3 | t+4 | t+5 |
| 13-Nov-13 | 5313.9 | -1.47 | 31 | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? |
| 21-Feb-13 | 4980.1 | -2.33 | 67 | 0.76 | 1.52 | 0.47 | 1.13 | 2.49 |
| 01-Nov-12 | 4457.6 | -1.32 | 63 | 0.06 | 0.37 | 0.61 | 1.32 | 0.59 |
| 07-May-12 | 4301.3 | -2.15 | 38 | 0.3 | -0.61 | -0.13 | -0.38 | -0.1 |
| 07-Mar-11 | 4797.9 | -1.37 | 30 | 0.21 | -0.63 | -2.05 | -3.19 | -3.57 |
| 20-Jan-11 | 4783.7 | -1.05 | 38 | -0.59 | 0.05 | 0.5 | 0.47 | -0.18 |
| 19-Apr-10 | 4915.1 | -1.40 | 34 | 0.22 | 0.8 | -0.16 | -0.68 | -0.71 |
| 28-Feb-07 | 5832.5 | -2.69 | 33 | -0.38 | -0.8 | -3.07 | -1.04 | -0.12 |
| 20-Nov-06 | 5322.4 | -1.80 | 41 | 0.67 | 2.32 | 2.71 | 2.47 | 2.44 |
| 04-May-06 | 5189.1 | -1.60 | 42 | 1.28 | 2.6 | 2.63 | 3.14 | 3.38 |
| 18-Jan-06 | 4786.9 | -1.63 | 30 | 1.13 | 1.41 | 0.53 | 0.79 | 1.56 |
| 29-Aug-05 | 4396.8 | -1.25 | 73 | 0.95 | 1.14 | 2.29 | 1.75 | 1.33 |
| 23-Mar-05 | 4170.8 | -1.49 | 82 | -0.82 | -1.8 | -1.81 | -1.46 | -0.78 |
| 22-Nov-04 | 3830.7 | -1.08 | 92 | 0.92 | 1.35 | 1.92 | 2.12 | 2.51 |
| 14-Jul-04 | 3522.8 | -1.01 | 45 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 0.29 | -0.55 | 0.03 |
| 29-Apr-04 | 3401.3 | -1.26 | 128 | -0.01 | -0.56 | -0.3 | 0.19 | -0.06 |
| 25-Sep-03 | 3172.8 | -1.11 | 64 | -0.04 | -0.27 | -0.1 | -0.43 | 0.84 |
| 26-Jun-03 | 3028.3 | -1.22 | 74 | 0.68 | -0.05 | 0.34 | 0.12 | 0.54 |
highlighted in the red are the two instances , when XJO didn’t manage to close higher at some point of time over the next five trading days .
It is also , the first fall of more than 0.5% over last 20 trading days , here is how XJO fared over the next 1/2/3/4/5 trading days ,when XJO falls by more than 0.5% , for the first time in the 20 or more trading days , since 2002.
| Exit | # | Wins | % Wins | Avg% | Med% | Avg Win % | Avg Loss % | Pay Off | Max Loss % |
| t+1 | 13 | 7 | 53.8 | 0.25 | 0.38 | 0.70 | -0.26 | 2.64 | -0.69 |
| t+2 | 13 | 7 | 53.8 | 0.34 | 0.04 | 0.95 | -0.37 | 2.54 | -0.73 |
| t+3 | 13 | 8 | 61.5 | 0.40 | 0.23 | 0.89 | -0.37 | 2.41 | -0.81 |
| t+4 | 13 | 9 | 69.2 | 0.61 | 0.32 | 1.05 | -0.37 | 2.86 | -0.69 |
| t+5 | 13 | 10 | 76.9 | 0.82 | 0.43 | 1.19 | -0.42 | 2.84 | -0.79 |
| Swing High | 13 | 13 | 100.0 | 0.52 | 0.45 | 0.52 | INF | INF | 0.03 |
below the prior instances of XJO falling by more than 0.5% , for the first time in the 30 trading days , since Jan 2002.
| Date | XJO Close | Loss% | # ago 0.5 % fall | t+1 | t+2 | t+3 | t+4 | t+5 |
| 13-Nov-13 | 5313.9 | -1.47 | 26 | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? | ?? |
| 07-Aug-13 | 5011.3 | -1.85 | 21 | 1.07 | 0.88 | 1.94 | 2.92 | 2.92 |
| 08-Jan-13 | 4690.3 | -0.57 | 21 | 0.38 | 0.7 | 0.41 | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| 10-Apr-12 | 4292.3 | -0.64 | 21 | -0.27 | 0.72 | 0.23 | -0.08 | 1.31 |
| 10-Apr-06 | 5192.3 | -0.78 | 27 | 0.79 | -0.17 | -0.32 | 1.08 | 1.76 |
| 18-Jan-06 | 4786.9 | -1.63 | 22 | 1.13 | 1.41 | 0.53 | 0.79 | 1.56 |
| 18-Aug-05 | 4442.9 | -0.56 | 21 | 0.42 | 1.27 | 0.95 | 0.08 | -0.41 |
| 14-Feb-05 | 4150.2 | -0.58 | 43 | -0.13 | 0.04 | 0.4 | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| 25-Oct-04 | 3681.6 | -0.76 | 51 | 0.63 | 1.62 | 2.57 | 2.63 | 2.98 |
| 24-Jun-04 | 3533.5 | -0.54 | 31 | -0.12 | -0.31 | -0.34 | -0.02 | 0.1 |
| 29-Apr-04 | 3401.3 | -1.26 | 20 | -0.01 | -0.56 | -0.3 | 0.19 | -0.06 |
| 22-Mar-04 | 3402.2 | -0.96 | 37 | -0.36 | -0.45 | -0.07 | 0.77 | 0.26 |
| 10-Sep-03 | 3216 | -0.60 | 29 | -0.69 | -0.73 | -0.81 | -0.67 | 0.03 |
| 18-Jun-03 | 3090.2 | -0.71 | 27 | 0.45 | -0.02 | 0.06 | -0.69 | -0.79 |
as you can see in the above table XJO managed to close above the current close , at some point of time during the next 5 trading days , when ever XJO falls by more than 0.5% for the first time in 20 trading days .
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